Santa Teresa, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

474
FXUS64 KEPZ 281709
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1109 AM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1100 AM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

 - Critical fire weather conditions across Southwest New Mexico
   today. Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with dry air could lead to
   rapid wildfire growth.

 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly southeast of El Paso
   this evening. Storm chances will be limited to areas east of
   the US-54 corridor through the week.

 - Temperatures will be typical of early July, with lowland highs
   in the upper 90s to 100 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Upper low over ID/MT today with an 80-knot jet streak at 500 mb
across the Central Rockies. Lee surface low formation will be over
southern CO this afternoon, inducing breezy southwest winds again
across Southwest New Mexico. Sustained speeds of 15 to 25 mph can
be expected, with a few gusts up to 40 mph mid-afternoon. This has
caused a drying trend for Southwest New Mexico, with no rain
chances over the weekend.

More favorable moisture exists across Chihuahua and Far West Texas
today, with model precipitable water values 1.0-1.2" and surface
dewpoints in the upper 40s/lower 50s. Isolated (20-30% coverage)
showers and thunderstorms can be expected across Hudspeth County
and across I-10, US 62/180 corridor east of El Paso later today.
Storms are not expected be severe, but could produce gusty winds
and blowing dust. Afternoon temperatures will be typical of late
June, with lowland highs in the upper 90s to 100 degrees.

Stagnant weather pattern this week with a large-scale trough over
the Western U.S. and strong high pressure over the
Ohio/Mississippi River valleys. The Southern Rockies will
generally rest in between these two features, with a plume of
subtropical moisture being pulled up over west Texas and the
eastern New Mexico plains. Storm chances will be limited mostly
east of the Rio Grande through the week, with isolated (20-30%)
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon for Otero/Hudspeth
Counties. Best chance for rain will likely be over the Sacramento
Mountains late this week, where terrain forcing aids in
convection. Decent chance El Paso and Las Cruces stay dry through
the Independence Day holiday, with temperatures warming back
toward the 100-104 range again by the latter half of this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

VMC through forecast period under southwest flow aloft. Skies
FEW-SCT120 this afternoon with isolated TSRA across W TX and SE
NM. TS threat remains SE and E of KELP today, with no direct
impacts expected. Surface winds 230-260 at 15 to 20 knots, with
gusts up to 35 knots across SW NM. Outflow shifting winds to the
south at KELP 180-210 at 8 to 12 knots overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Critical fire weather conditions across Southwest New Mexico this
afternoon with southwest winds 15 to 25 mph and Min RH 12 to 18%
causing a few hours of Red Flag criteria for Gila NF and portions
of Grant/Sierra/Catron Counties. Fuel moisture is currently at
climatological peak dryness and ongoing drought across western New
Mexico has ERCs at the 90th percentile. Wildfire growth will be
possible next few days.

Elevated fire weather conditions will continue across Southwest
New Mexico through the early half of this week, with little to no
rain chances. Winds decrease slightly Monday/Tuesday (southwest
10 to 20 mph) below critical thresholds, but very dry air will
remain in place. Further drying this week will lead to single-
digit RH across Gila NF by midweek. More favorable moisture will
exist further east across West Texas and Eastern New Mexico, where
isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible for Lincoln
National Forest Thursday into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  76  98  75  97 /  10   0  10   0
Sierra Blanca            67  91  64  91 /  30  20  20  20
Las Cruces               68  96  68  94 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               70  96  69  95 /   0   0  10  10
Cloudcroft               54  73  53  73 /   0   0  10  10
Truth or Consequences    69  96  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              62  88  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   67  98  67  97 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                65  95  64  94 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       75  96  75  95 /  10   0   0   0
Dell City                70  97  68  96 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Hancock             73  98  71  97 /  30  20  10  10
Loma Linda               69  90  67  89 /  10  10  10  10
Fabens                   73  98  72  97 /  20  10  10  10
Santa Teresa             71  95  71  94 /  10   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           75  97  75  96 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            68  96  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    69  99  68  98 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 73  98  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                69  95  68  94 /   0   0  10   0
Mayhill                  59  85  57  84 /   0   0   0  20
Mescalero                57  84  56  83 /   0   0   0  10
Timberon                 55  82  53  81 /   0   0  10  10
Winston                  58  87  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                66  93  65  93 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                64  96  64  94 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             57  88  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   63  92  62  91 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    62  94  61  93 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               60  90  59  89 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  65  91  63  90 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   65  95  65  94 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  65  94  64  93 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           67  94  65  93 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               63  88  62  88 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for South Central
     Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest
     Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest
     Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt