Santa Teresa, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

747
FXUS64 KEPZ 222330
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
430 PM MST Sun Feb 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 425 PM MST Sun Feb 22 2026

 - Quiet weather pattern through the period with dry conditions;
   breezy afternoon winds mid-week.

 - Near record warmth the latter half of the week, with lowland
   high temperatures in the lower eighties.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1000 AM MST Sun Feb 22 2026

Long wave UL ridge remains anchored in place across the Western
CONUS this morning with plenty of cirrus over topping it. An
easterly push did arrive earlier this morning bringing breezy
easterly winds to areas along the International Border. There
isn`t any cold air with this push, and highs today will actually
be a couple degrees warmer. Regardless of how you feel about
today`s weather, we can all celebrate USA`s win over Canada
though. USA USA USA!

With the ridge remaining in place and flow switching to westerly
at the surface, temperatures will warm quickly for Monday,
leveling off toward Wednesday. A persistent lee trough will form
by Tuesday, fostering breezy winds. This lee low deepens further
for Wednesday as a s/w trough dives southeast through NM and CO.
This will be our breeziest day. For now, it appears we will not
need any wind headlines, but the dry air will make for some
elevated fire concerns.

The remainder of the period (Thursday through Saturday) will be
rather tranquil and warm. Temperatures do fall about 5 degrees for
Thursday but still well above normal. The warming trend will
resume afterward with mid 80s common in the lowlands by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 430 PM MST Sun Feb 22 2026

We will have VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Our high
ceilings of SCT-BKN250, will continue to become less and less and
by later tonight we will unlimited ceilings. Those unlimited
ceilings will continue through the day on Monday. We currently
have some low end east or southeast gusty winds this afternoon,
thanks to an overnight east push. Those low end gusty winds will
drop off in the next few hours and we will continue to have light
east or southeast winds tonight and into the day on Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1000 AM MST Sun Feb 22 2026

We will remain in a warm and dry weather pattern throughout the
period. Winds will be breezy this afternoon, especially along the
International Border, but below any critical thresholds. Min RH
values will be well into the teens. Even drier conditions are
forecast for Monday and Tuesday as min RH values approach 10%.
Tuesday will see modestly breezy winds, but no critical
conditions.

Wednesday will see elevated fire concerns as winds top out between
20 and 25 MPH with min RH values in the mid teens in the lowlands
with 20s in the mountains. Give ERCs in the 50th percentile, marginally
critical RH values, and winds just above critical thresholds, I
will abstain from any fire headlines on this forecast update.

Venting category will be good across the International Border
today with fair to poor elsewhere for today. Venting will be poor
all areas for Monday with the light winds. By Tuesday, venting
will improve to the good to very good category with very good to
excellent venting on Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  37  69  41  79 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            31  65  36  75 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               31  65  36  76 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               30  65  36  74 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               25  49  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    33  66  38  79 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              33  62  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   33  68  36  80 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                36  67  36  75 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       39  68  43  79 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                28  66  33  78 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             35  71  39  82 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               34  62  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   35  70  39  80 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             34  66  38  78 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           36  66  42  78 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            29  66  34  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    29  68  33  82 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 35  68  39  81 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                30  65  36  75 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  27  62  37  70 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                27  60  33  66 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 30  55  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  24  61  30  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                33  65  39  78 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                28  65  33  79 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             28  65  33  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   30  64  35  73 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    30  70  33  77 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               30  68  35  73 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  33  62  38  73 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   33  68  37  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  33  66  36  78 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           33  67  39  80 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               36  65  44  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice