Santa Teresa, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

237
FXUS64 KEPZ 302347 AAA
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
547 PM MDT Sun Mar 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 542 PM MDT Sun Mar 30 2025

 - Lighter winds but continued warm temperatures Monday.

 - Strong winds and widespread dusty conditions are expected on
   Tuesday, with breezy to windy conditions lingering into
   Wednesday.

 - Precipitation chances begin to increase late in the week as an
   upper low interacts with a back door cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM MDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Winds are slowly increasing across the area, with gusts over 30
mph becoming common. Still expect peak winds will end up a little
lower than yesterday afternoon, with less dust as well. So far,
satellite imagery shows just the slightest hints of plumes trying
to develop in northern Chihuahua. Meanwhile, RH values have
tumbled into the single digits, as expected.

Zonal flow sets up tomorrow, giving us a one day break from the
windy conditions. But a broad trough carving out across the Great
Basin on Tuesday will bring us very windy and dusty conditions to
start April, with winds not falling far we saw from some of our
bigger events in March. Models indicate 700 mb wind max of 55 to
60 knots will settle across the area right around midday Tuesday,
perhaps a hair early for peak mixing, but BUFKIT profiles suggest
mixing up to around 600 mb will still tap into 50 knots for
momentum transfer. All things considered, we will likely need
widespread Wind Advisories for Tuesday, with warning criteria
gusts in the higher terrain and east slope locations. Can`t rule
out a few lowland zones being added to the warning criteria mix as
well. For now, continued with the High Wind Watch as issued on the
overnight shift.

Breezy to windy conditions, possibly advisory criteria again, will
linger into Wednesday, with additional blowing dust possible given
a continued WSW wind direction.

Then things turn interesting. A strong shortwave trough diving
down the west coast will further deepen the Great Basin trough,
deep enough to allow it to tap into some limited moisture while a
weak backdoor cold front slides in from the northeast. Ensembles
are all trending towards increasing chances for precip Friday and
Saturday, with some higher elevation accumulating snow possible as
well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 PM MDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Gusty swly to wly winds will persist through the early portion of
the TAF period. Minor reductions in cigs/vsbys observed around the
forecast area due to HZ/BLDU but currently, all terminals are at
VFR conditions. Chances for lcl and brief MVFR cigs/vsbys will
remain until aft 31/02Z. Winds will remain somewhat elevated
overnight, diminishing btwn 31/09Z and 31/12Z. Gusty winds will
return tomorrow to a lesser extent, with gusts around 20 kts
commonplace.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 320 PM MDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Winds are continuing to increase this afternoon as RH values
continue to crater into the single digits across the lowlands.

Lighter winds are expected for Monday, but vent rates will
remain favorable. Much stronger winds are expected on Tuesday,
when critical fire weather conditions will develop again, despite
modest improvements in RH values. Continued breezy to windy
conditions are likely on Wednesday with another critical fire
weather day possible in the lowlands.

The good news...precip chances look to work back into the
forecast late in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  51  80  53  81 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            45  76  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               42  77  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               42  77  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               30  55  39  53 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    43  79  49  72 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              38  69  42  64 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   40  79  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                38  76  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       51  79  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                43  80  47  81 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             46  83  48  86 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               45  72  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   47  80  50  83 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             45  78  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           50  79  55  77 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            39  78  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    39  81  50  77 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 46  81  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                43  76  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  35  70  46  66 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                33  65  42  64 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 32  65  38  63 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  29  72  38  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                38  78  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                36  78  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             26  70  32  63 /   0   0   0  10
Hurley                   35  72  40  67 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    33  76  37  70 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               25  71  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  39  73  44  68 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   39  80  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  38  78  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           40  80  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               43  73  45  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening
     for Eastern/Central El Paso County.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for Texas Fire
     Weather Zone 055 El Paso County- Texas Fire Weather Zone
     056 Hudspeth County.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County-
     Texas Fire Weather Zone 056 Hudspeth County.

NM...High Wind Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening
     for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
     Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sacramento Mountains Above
     7500 Feet-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-West
     Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for Capitan and
     Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South Central Lowlands
     and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts
     and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ-
      South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande
     Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces
     BLM/GLZ.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...99