Santa Teresa, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

436
FXUS64 KEPZ 160438
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1038 PM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025

...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 -  Hottest temperatures of the year so far through Tuesday.
    Lowland highs 103 to 108 degrees.

 -  Dry conditions prevailing this week, with rain chances
    increasing next weekend.

 -  Critical fire weather conditions possible Tuesday afternoon
    as breezy west winds develop with very dry and hot weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1030 PM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025

...TODAY...
Ongoing heat wave due to high pressure aloft centered over the
Sierra Madres, suppressing storm chances and causing daytime
temperatures to soar. El Paso reached a daily record 109 degrees
Sunday afternoon, and will easily reach 106-109 again today and
Tuesday. This will again threaten daily record highs. Most of the
New Mexico lowlands are again looking at 102-106 degrees.

Most areas will stay dry Monday afternoon as warm nose aloft from
high pressure suffocates any potential instability. Wouldn`t be
surprised to see some isolated showers form over the east slopes
of the Sacramento Mtns during the early afternoon and Hudspeth
County in the evening. These storms will be weak in intensity but
capable of gusty outflow winds and even more local blowing dust.

...TUESDAY...
Upper high sags southward on Tuesday in response to a passing
shortwave through the central Rockies. Lee surface low formation
will shift our winds to the west Tuesday afternoon, becoming
breezy (15 to 25 mph) midday. Main concern is critical fire
danger, especially over mountain forests due to the ongoing heat
and dryness. Lowland temperatures once again 102 to 108 degrees
with the hottest areas being El Paso and the Lower Valley.

...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A more consistent shift of wind signaling the start of the 2025
monsoon season is likely to begin later this week. Both GFS and
ECMWF show the upper high making a slow but steady shift eastward
and southeast flow locally becoming more established by Thursday.
This flow of deeper moisture will cause a steady ramping up of
rain chances into next weekend. It will also promote a steady
cooling trend, bringing temperatures closer to normal by the end
of the week (lowland highs 95 to 100). Lowland rain chances will
remain quite low until at least next Saturday, where precipitation
water (PW) reaches 0.9", but we should see mountain coverage
increase a little bit each afternoon.

...NEXT WEEK...
Favorable fetch of moisture for storm chances next week, according
to the long term models. Best rain chances look to be Sunday
through next Tuesday. Near normal temperatures and scattered
afternoon thunderstorms in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1030 PM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Outflow from distant TS with wind direction 100-130 and gusts to
25 knots through 08Z. Lighter S flow overnight AOB 05 knots. Skies
FEW-SCT140, becoming clear by sunrise Monday morning. No direct
TS impacts expected at terminals tomorrow, but outflows may reach
KELP during the late evening hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1030 PM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Near critical fire danger on Monday, becoming critical on Tuesday
due to breezy west winds. Midday RH 5 to 10% each afternoon with
temperatures 8 to 10 degrees above normal for mid June. 20-foot
winds out of the west 10 to 15 mph on Monday, leading to Excellent
vent rates and smoke transport due east. Flow out of the west
increasing Tuesday afternoon to 15 to 25 mph, prompting a Fire
Weather Watch for portions of southwest New Mexico including Gila
National Forest.

Lighter winds rest of the week as the upper high pressure drifts
east and a trend of milder temperatures and increasing moisture
begins. Storm coverage over mountains will slowly increase each
day, becoming more widespread by next weekend. Storms will be
capable of new fire starts due to dry lightning and gusty,
erratic outflow winds. ERCs remain near the 90-percentile and
above normal for peak fire season, we greatly welcome any
potential wetting rain chances early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  77 108  78 108 /  10   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            67 100  70 102 /  30  10  10   0
Las Cruces               69 104  70 102 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               70 104  70 104 /  10   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               56  81  57  80 /  10  10   0   0
Truth or Consequences    72 104  72 103 /  10   0   0   0
Silver City              67  97  67  93 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   69 107  69 104 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                68 103  67 100 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       77 105  78 104 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                67 104  70 106 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Hancock             72 108  74 109 /  20  10  10   0
Loma Linda               70  99  72  99 /  10  10  10   0
Fabens                   72 107  72 107 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             72 104  72 103 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           75 105  79 104 /  10   0   0   0
Jornada Range            68 104  68 103 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    67 106  69 104 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 73 107  75 104 /  10   0   0   0
Orogrande                69 102  71 102 /  10  10   0   0
Mayhill                  60  92  62  92 /   0  20   0   0
Mescalero                60  92  61  91 /   0  10   0   0
Timberon                 57  89  60  89 /  10  10   0   0
Winston                  59  96  60  94 /  10   0   0   0
Hillsboro                67 102  69 100 /  10   0   0   0
Spaceport                65 103  67 102 /  10   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             58  99  59  94 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   66 101  65  97 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    65 104  64  99 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               64  99  63  95 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  69 100  69  97 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   69 104  68 102 /  10   0   0   0
Hachita                  68 103  68 101 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           70 103  69 101 /  10   0   0   0
Cloverdale               69  98  67  96 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until midnight MDT Tuesday night for
     Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth
     Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El
     Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern
     Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
     Western El Paso County.

NM...Heat Advisory until midnight MDT Tuesday night for Central Grant
     County/Silver City Area-East Central Tularosa
     Basin/Alamogordo-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Lowlands of
     the Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sierra
     County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana
     County/Mesilla Valley-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres
     Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest
     Desert/Mimbres Basin-Upper Gila River Valley-West Central
     Tularosa Basin/White Sands.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande
     Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces
     BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt