Santa Teresa, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

535
FXUS64 KEPZ 251204
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
604 AM MDT Sat Apr 25 2026

...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 452 AM MDT Sat Apr 25 2026

 - Breezy and dry on Saturday. Then windy, dry, and possibly dusty
   on Sunday. Critical fire weather conditions are expected, and
   Red Flag Warnings are in effect for much of the area on both
   days.

 - The weather will be more benign Monday through Wednesday, as we
   sit between upper level  low pressure passages. Temperatures
   seasonably warm, conditions continue very dry, Winds lighter,
   but still breezy afternoons.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1050 PM MDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Twin upper lows are located off the California coast tonight,
while a strong shortwave trough is dropping south across Oregon.
The latter will act as a kicker which will bring a merged upper
low into Central California late Saturday. This system will weaken
into an open trough as it moves across the Four Corners region on
Sunday.

While not a terribly high-amplitude system, winds aloft will be
strong enough to induce strong lee cyclogenesis, with the GFS
indicating a 990mb surface low in far SE Colorado Sunday
afternoon. Winds aloft look to be about 45 to 50 knots in the 800
to 700 mb layer, and 50 to 55 knots around 600 mb, close to our
expected mixing heights. Expect widespread WSW winds gusting 45 to
55 mph on Sunday afternoon, strongest in south-central New Mexico
and along east-facing mountain slopes. Gusts may approach High
Wind Warning criteria in the Sacramento Mountains, but we often
struggle with verification in these scenarios, so went the
Advisory route for the time being.

Wind direction looks to be around 250 degrees much of Sunday
afternoon...normally a favorable trajectory for blowing dust at
El Paso, and south of Deming. Wind gusts at Lordsburg will lag
behind areas further east, but dust is likely there. Whether we
will see higher impact dust outside of Lordsburg Playa (rather
than just murky haze) is a tough call given the lack of wind
events so far this season. We are basically uncalibrated.

Weak upper level disturbances will keep breezy conditions in place
early next. The strongest disturbance looks to graze northern New
Mexico Monday night into Tuesday, ill-timed for strong winds.

Longer range may bring precip chances into the area late week, but
things could easily change with just a slight northward jog of a
projected upper low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 452 AM MDT Sat Apr 25 2026

We will be breezy to windy today and windy with blowing dust on
Sunday. The gusty winds today will start by late morning and by
early afternoon we will have west winds of 15 to 25 mph. An
approaching upper level storm system will give us even stronger
winds on Sunday and with the southwest direction of the winds we
will likely see areas of blowing dust Sunday afternoon. Back to
today, we will see high off and on ceilings of SCT-BKN250. The
high clouds will move off by late tonight. Today`s gusty winds
may drop off early Sunday morning but the quickly return by late
Sunday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 452 AM MDT Sat Apr 25 2026

We will have critical fire weather conditions today and again on
Sunday with min RH`s of around 10 to 15% in the lowlands and near
20% in area mountains. Winds today will be from the west at 15 to
25 mph and on Sunday we will have southwest winds of 25 to 35 mph
with gusts near 50 mph. Red flag warnings are in effect for today
and Sunday. For the start of next week, we will see less winds,
but single digit min RH`s will be widespread in the lowlands.
Higher min RH`s arrive for the end of the coming week. Vent rates
today and Sunday will be excellent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  64  88  59  84 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            59  85  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               52  83  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               57  84  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               43  60  37  56 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    53  80  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              47  70  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   53  84  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                50  78  42  79 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       62  86  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                56  88  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             60  94  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               54  81  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   61  91  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             57  85  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           61  85  55  81 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            52  83  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    53  85  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 58  86  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                54  83  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  48  73  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                46  71  40  69 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 44  70  39  66 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  42  70  35  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                53  77  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                49  80  44  80 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             37  70  30  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   45  75  38  73 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    45  76  37  77 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               40  70  32  73 /  10   0   0   0
Faywood                  48  75  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   56  80  43  81 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  56  80  44  81 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           54  80  45  82 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               49  74  42  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for Texas Fire
     Weather Zone 055 El Paso County- Texas Fire Weather Zone
     056 Hudspeth County.

     Wind Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Sunday for Eastern/Central
     El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-
     Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth
     Counties-Western El Paso County.

NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ-
      South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande
     Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces
     BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for Capitan and
     Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South Central Lowlands
     and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts
     and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila
     NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for Central Grant
     County/Silver City Area-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains
     Below 7500 Feet-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Lowlands of
     the Bootheel-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Southern
     Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region
     Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River
     Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Uplands of the
     Bootheel-Upper Gila River Valley-West Slopes Sacramento
     Mountains Below 7500 Feet.

     Wind Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Sunday for East Central
     Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero
     Mesa-Sierra County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern
     Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-West Central Tularosa
     Basin/White Sands.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice