Santa Teresa, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

072
FXUS64 KEPZ 152345
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
545 PM MDT Sun Mar 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 539 PM MDT Sun Mar 15 2026

 - Gusty winds will slowly diminish in intensity this afternoon
   and early evening.

 - A backdoor cold front will bring a return of gusty winds, this
   time from the east, with a few gusts reaching 40 to 45 mph
   along west-facing mountain slopes late tonight into Monday
   morning.

 - Cooler temperatures will make a brief appearance on Monday.

 - Temperatures will trend sharply warmer from Tuesday, reaching
   20 to 25 degrees above normal by the end of the week. Highs in
   the 90s will be common in the lowlands.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 123 PM MDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Shortwave trough axis has cleared the area, but we remain in
cyclonic flow aloft with enhanced flow just aloft. As a result W
to WNW winds remain gusty across the area, with the strongest
gusts east of area mountain ranges and up in the Sacramento
Mountains as well.

Winds will start to diminish this afternoon, as a surface trough
begins developing ahead of a back door cold front, weakening the
pressure gradient in the Las Cruces-El Paso corridor. It`ll still
be breezy, with gusts 25 to 35 mph, but well off the high gusts
for the day.

The backdoor front will push into the Sacramento Mountains around
9 PM, then reaching El Paso around 11 PM. Easterly downslope wind
gusts could reach 35 to 40 mph in parts of west El Paso in the
predawn to mid-morning hours. Satellite shows some dust getting
lofted across the Texas Panhandle, and some hazy dust can be
expected around here tomorrow morning. The front will stall out
and weaken at the Continental Divide, with cooler temperatures
prevailing the further east you go. Highs still look to top out in
the middle to upper-60s tomorrow around El Paso and Las Cruces.

Quiet weather will prevail from Tuesday, as a broad and highly
anomalous upper ridge (for March) centers itself over the lower
Colorado Basin and expands. Winds and precip are of no concern
through the week, but temperatures will climb to extreme levels
for March, possibly threatening to break monthly records. El Paso
will likely break the 90 degree mark on Thursday, and stay there
though at least Sunday. A weak easterly push could take the edge
off things on Monday as the upper ridge lays over us and begins to
weaken.

Record Highs at El Paso for the next several days, and the current
deterministic forecast:

Wed 3/17 -- 87 (1887) Fcst: 87
Thu 3/18 -- 91 (1907) Fcst: 91
Fri 3/19 -- 92 (1907) Fcst: 93
Sat 3/20 -- 93 (1907) Fcst: 94
Sun 3/21 -- 89 (2017) Fcst: 94

The all-time March record high is 93, last set in 2017 (also
reached in 1907).

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 PM MDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Breezy winds are expected to continue the next couple hours but
will be on the downtrend. A cold front is pushing in from the
Great Plains which will shift winds from the west, quickly to the
north and then an east wind with some marginal breeziness tonight
with the front. KTCS will feature more of a northerly wind with
the front which could cause some extra gustiness due to funneling
of the winds at that site. HZ may be seen at KELP and KLRU with
the front due to some dust being shoved in with the front. Light
southeast to southerly winds expected tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 123 PM MDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Despite gusty winds and diminishing RH values, fire weather
conditions have so far proven marginal in much of SW New Mexico
this afternoon. Strongest winds for the remainder of the
afternoon will generally be east of the Black Range and then east
of the Rio Grande, with intensity slowly diminishing.

A backdoor cold front will push into the area late tonight,
stalling out near the Continental Divide on Monday morning. Cooler
temperatures will filter in behind the front, but highs will
remain above normal Monday in the Gila and Bootheel Regions.
Cooler than normal temperatures will mainly be found near and east
of the Rio Grande.

A sprawling upper level ridge, unusually strong for this time of
year, will bring sharply higher temperatures to the area next
week, especially Wednesday through at least Sunday. High
temperatures will be pushing March records, with lower to middle
90s expected across the lowlands. Minimum RH values will dip below
5 percent by late in the week. Winds, however, will be light, so
the main concern will be enhanced drying of fuels, putting us in a
bad position later in the month as we`re bound to see some windy
days eventually.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  42  66  40  79 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            34  60  40  77 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               39  64  38  78 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               35  64  35  78 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               26  45  33  57 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    44  68  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              40  68  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   41  70  39  80 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                41  73  39  82 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       44  66  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                32  60  27  80 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             38  70  38  83 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               32  59  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   41  68  43  80 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             40  65  41  77 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           40  65  41  79 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            33  65  31  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    38  70  35  82 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 44  70  42  81 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                35  62  35  75 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  21  59  31  72 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                27  56  31  67 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 24  52  26  64 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  34  68  35  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                42  70  43  80 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                37  66  36  81 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             31  70  24  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   37  67  39  77 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    37  75  34  84 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               34  72  28  80 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  39  66  41  79 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   44  75  42  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  43  72  41  81 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           41  74  40  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               43  73  45  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Texas Fire
     Weather Zone 055 El Paso County- Texas Fire Weather Zone
     056 Hudspeth County.

NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Capitan and
     Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South Central Lowlands
     and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest
     Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...37-Slusher