Santa Teresa, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

362
FXUS64 KEPZ 031154 AAA
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
454 AM MST Tue Dec 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 448 AM MST Tue Dec 3 2024

- Cooler temperatures today with light winds, increasing high
  clouds, and dry conditions.

- Unsettled weather makes its return Thursday with isolated rain
  into Saturday. Cooler temperatures are forecast early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 AM MST Tue Dec 3 2024

Clear skies and calm winds currently across the Borderland are
working to enhance radiational cooling. This is resulting in a
swatch of dense fog on the east slopes of the Sacs below 7500`
which is expected to persist until a little after sunrise. As
such, did hoist a Freezing Fog Advisory for this zone, which
includes portions of US Hwy 82.

Otherwise, another calm day is expected across the Borderland as a
ridge of high pressure continues its tour of the Desert Southwest.
H5 pressure heights will trend down as the ridge traverses east,
allowing for a moderate cool down areawide. Most locales should see
a 3F to 7F reduction in afternoon highs compared to Monday`s
readings. The ridge will breakdown tonight into Wednesday, but
the process will have little impact on sensible weather. The main
change will come Thursday when a baggy and generally moisture-
starved low pressure system saunters across AZ and into NM.
Getting all the moisture it can from warm return flow across TX,
the 570dam low will bring isolated rain to the Borderland on
Thursday. Only the extreme northern high terrain will have a shot
at seeing light snowfall. Almost wholly stable, the disturbance
will spread light rain with a low--but nonzero-- chance of a rogue
grumble of thunder in the afternoon. Beyond Thursday, the low`s
evolution remains ambiguous. The GFS has latched onto the tune the
ECMWF sang yesterday about tracking the system across NM. Its
trajectory is much more progressive, shooting the system out of
the Desert Southwest by Saturday afternoon. The ECMWF suggests the
low stays in residence a while longer, which could allow the
light stratiform rain to linger.

While the low`s fate still remains murky over the weekend,
another storm system sets its target on the PacNW Saturday. A much
colder and moisture-rich low, this disturbance will jettison into
the Intermountain West on Sunday. The 544dam low will crash into
the Central Rockies Monday morning, a tight H5 pressure gradient
rounding out its southern periphery. This would set the stage for
breezy to windy conditions that afternoon. A much more potent
system, it would bring with it a two-tiered frontal assault
resulting in markedly lower temperatures early next week. Stay
tuned...

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 448 AM MST Tue Dec 3 2024

VFR conditions to prevail throughout the TAF period at terminals,
however, lcl FG in the ern portion of the fcst area may cause
MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys thru 03/17Z. Winds will be light with the
exception of portions of swrn NM, where aftn gusts around 20 kts
are expected. Cloud cover will increase as a system begins its
approach ewd from SoCal.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 233 AM MST Tue Dec 3 2024

A ridge of high pressure will begin breaking down tonight into
Wednesday as a weak low pressure system makes its way across the
Desert Southwest. MinRH will remain well above critical thresholds
and light, terrain-influenced winds will persist. Isolated rain will
accompany the storm system as it slowly migrates across NM Thursday
through the weekend. Rain will be mostly light in nature, though a
rumble of thunder Thursday or Friday afternoon cannot be ruled out.
Exact evolution of the system from Friday night forward is still
being debated amongst guidance but light rain could persist though
Saturday night. Another stronger system is forecast to bring
stronger wind and colder temperatures early next week. Ventilation
will remain poor to fair until Monday when increases to good and
very good for most zones.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  63  46  67  46 /  20   0   0  10
Sierra Blanca            60  41  65  40 /  20   0   0  10
Las Cruces               60  41  64  39 /  10   0  10  10
Alamogordo               61  39  64  36 /   0   0  10   0
Cloudcroft               47  29  47  25 /   0   0  10  10
Truth or Consequences    57  39  60  36 /   0   0  10   0
Silver City              56  37  61  36 /   0  10  20  10
Deming                   59  38  64  38 /  20  10  10  10
Lordsburg                61  35  65  33 /   0   0  10   0
West El Paso Metro       63  47  66  46 /  20   0  10  10
Dell City                61  39  67  37 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             66  41  70  39 /  10   0   0  10
Loma Linda               56  42  61  41 /  10   0   0  10
Fabens                   64  42  68  42 /  10   0   0  10
Santa Teresa             61  41  65  41 /  20  10  10  10
White Sands HQ           61  45  65  43 /  10  10  10  10
Jornada Range            60  38  64  35 /   0  10  10  10
Hatch                    61  39  66  36 /  10  10  10  10
Columbus                 61  40  64  39 /  20  10  10  10
Orogrande                60  42  62  38 /   0   0  10  10
Mayhill                  56  33  61  30 /   0   0  10   0
Mescalero                56  31  58  28 /   0  10  10  10
Timberon                 53  31  57  28 /   0   0  10   0
Winston                  53  26  57  26 /   0   0  10   0
Hillsboro                57  36  62  35 /  10  10  10   0
Spaceport                59  37  63  34 /   0  10  10  10
Lake Roberts             59  32  62  30 /   0  10  20  10
Hurley                   55  34  62  33 /  10  10  10  10
Cliff                    68  24  69  23 /   0  10  20  10
Mule Creek               62  33  62  32 /   0  10  10  10
Faywood                  55  37  61  37 /  10  10  10  10
Animas                   62  34  67  33 /   0   0  10   0
Hachita                  59  34  65  34 /  10   0  10   0
Antelope Wells           61  36  67  34 /   0  10  10   0
Cloverdale               60  39  63  38 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Freezing Fog Advisory until 10 AM MST this morning for East
     Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...40-Breitreiter